While we are all busy voting (or not) for who runs the country from May 8 onwards, parties will be thinking of their future. What is almost certain is that we will have another coalition government.
It could even be of a coalition of three parties. A result of coalition governments has been talked about now more than that of one party government. It seems that although the Lib Dems did not get their voting system change, the outcome it would have produced has come to realisation anyway: coalition is now the norm.
So with that in mind, I ask the question: what will happen to the parties without power after the electoral dust has settled? And I refer to the two main parties particularly in this, since they have most to lose.
Labour is possibly the easiest to predict. The party is not the one – as we all know – that was created in 1900 for the progression of Trade Unionist ideals. From Tony Blair to Tony Benn, there is now a wide spectrum of thought within the party, and this leads to it becoming unwieldy and ineffective.
There is talk of the Trade Unions setting up a political party to counter the right-wing element of Labour. If this happens, I’m adamant that key figures on the left of Labour will defect. Jeremy Corbyn, a regular contributor for The Morning Star will certainly be one, along with Dennis Skinner and Diane Abbott.
This will split Labour into two parties, effectively fighting against each other for a spot in future coalitions.With the Conservatives, it’s easier to predict a cause for the split. The largest and oldest party is not as likely to split as Labour is.
Europe will be the note the bell tolls when the party’s time is up. The European Union has always been the thorn in the side of the party since the signing of the Maastricht Treaty, while Labour’s Eurosceptic wing has been quietened far more successfully by the party leadership.
A few of those included in any possible split amongst the Conservatives will just defect to UKIP, but many more will form a separate group to counter the perceived social-right prejudices of the radical-right.
These parties, when in coalition with each other, will produce far more logical terms of governance such as a supply and confidence on Europe. Whatever happens to the main two parties, we are going to see many backbench rebellions before any splits.
I believe the Liberal Democrats will have their way in garnering enough support for a revote on the Alternative Vote referendum, and this will see one-party governments as a relic of the past.
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